Friday, March 03, 2006

My Oscar Predictions

The rundown on the six categories everyone cares about. Note: this is much tougher than last year. I'll try to see most of the contenders in 06. Scouts Honor.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote," Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow," Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain," Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line," David Strathairn in "Good Night, and Good Luck."

Will Win: Ledger. That movie's gonna clean up, I think.

Should Win: Hoffman. Sure it's the only one I saw, but he was outstanding.

Notable Snub: Andy Serkis, "King Kong." I'm only 25% joking.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Nominees: George Clooney in "Syriana," Matt Dillon in "Crash," Paul Giamatti in "Cinderella Man," Jake Gyllenhaal in "Brokeback Mountain," William Hurt in "A History of Violence" (New Line)

Will Win: Giametti. He was better in this performance than in "Sideways", and also has the "make-up" momentum going for him.

Should Win: Giametti.

Notable Snub: Ben Kingsley, "Oliver Twist."

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Nominees: Judi Dench in "Mrs. Henderson Presents," Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica," Keira Knightley in "Pride & Prejudice," Charlize Theron in "North Country," Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line"

Will Win: Witherspoon. Just a hunch.

Should Win: I have no frame of reference, but I hear Knightley was great.

Notable Snub: No opinion.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Nominees: Amy Adams in "Junebug," Catherine Keener in "Capote," Frances McDormand in "North Country," Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener," Michelle Williams in "Brokeback Mountain"

Will Win: No idea. Williams?

Should Win: Weisz, but only because she was better than Keener, the only one of the other nominees I saw.

Notable Snub: Kirsten Dunst, "Elizabethtown." No, not really, but I did like her annoyingly cute character. Actually, how about Georgie Henley, "Narnia"? And I'm pretty serious. She was as good as Keener was.

Achievement in directing

Nominees: "Brokeback Mountain," Ang Lee; "Capote," Bennett Miller; "Crash," Paul Haggis; "Good Night, and Good Luck," George Clooney; "Munich," Steven Spielberg

Will Win: Lee. Is there any doubt?

Should win: For all I know it could be Lee. It isn't Spielberg.

Notable Snub: George Lucas. Yes, I'm joking.

Best motion picture of the year

Nominees: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich"
Will Win: "Brokeback Mountain"

Should Win: "Capote" was the best of the three I saw.

Notable Snub: "Cinderella Man." It's not as egregious as some of the snubs from 04, but the only thing "Munich" had on it was the director's name.


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